Skip to main content

Indian Markets - Positive Week Ahead

Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat - Winston Churchill
Indian Markets Last week: Nifty moved in a band between 2750 and 2870. Going ahead, the next week seems to be a positive one at least in the first half. The short-term up trend from 2661 can continue to take the index to 2950 /3000.Short term reversal can be expected from these levels.If the rally continues, Nifty will test the resistance band between 3070 and 3090.Supports for the week are at 2760 and 2660.The short term is positive as long as the index trades above 2760.

Global markets: There was a strong rally in global equities, last week and that made most markets close with hefty gains. Volatility came down after a sharp spike in the early part of the week.The 200 points spurt in Dow Jones on Friday took the index well above the critical 8000 level.And on Monday, the most anticipated bailout package is to be announced, which could decide the further course of the markets.

Stock Levels for index heavy weights:

Reliance (1343): The stock moved in a range before ending with up just Rs 17 of weekly gains. There can be an upside rally upto Rs 1,400. But the area around Rs 1,400 is a strong resistance where reversal can be expected.Supports are pegged at Rs 1,250/1200.The stock has not broken out this range for the past 3 months.

Infosys (1280): The stock did not break above the resistance at Rs 1,300. A downward reversal from here can pull the stock down to Rs 1,220/1160.The medium-term range for the stock is between Rs 1,070 and Rs 1,300.

Sbi (1118): SBI closed lower this week with 3 per cent loss.The 200 day moving average at Rs 1,180 will act as a strong resistance.The near-term view will turn positive only on a close above Rs 1,200. The long-term support is available at Rs.1000.

Popular posts from this blog

Historical Sensex Returns Updated - 2024

Historically Sensex has given returns of about 15% per year, despite volatility and price fluctuations of about -20% to +60%. The following table shows S&P BSE Sensex historical data - start  & close values and the yearly returns of the sensex from 2000 to 2024. So far during the year the   index has hit an all-time high of  75,124   and despite markets hitting all time highs not all stocks make all-time highs. There are many stocks still below their highs. Stocks like HDFC Bank, ITC, Asian paints are still well below their highs and some of them have given low returns over last 3-5 years. Individual or Retail investors can achieve consistent returns through investing via mutual funds , whether it be active or passive. Chasing returns from individual stocks is futile. Be a wise investor !

Historical BSE Sensex returns - updated 2013

We have already seen the historical returns of the BSE Sensex, which indicated an average return of about 20%  per year, despite many yearly returns varying from -20% to +60%. The following table shows BSE Sensex historical data - open, close and the yearly returns of the sensex from 2000 to 2012. There are some interesting points to note from the above table. Post 2008 crash of about 50% and 2011 negative returns of 24%, markets have given positive returns of 81% and 25%. Also the average returns for the past years is about 20% despite the markets being down 24%. The lesson is pretty much clear - long term investing pays and one need not bother too much about the ups and downs of the markets. During the past few years, the returns from investing in individual stocks have been varied.  Despite markets being at 2 year highs, only a few stocks are at similar highs, while most of them are still languishing well below their historical highs and are down anywhere ...